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Thursday, 5 March 2015

Why China admitting their economy is slowing matters

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In his annual address to the National People’s Party in the overnight, Premier Li Keqiang confirmed what observers have been saying for some time. China’s growth has been and appears likely to continue slowing.
In last night’s address, the Premier outlined an economic forecast for the year ahead that speaks primarily to reform and concern. It lacked the characteristic positivity that these annual addresses have had for the past several decades. China’s slowing growth translates to a goal of 7 percent for 2015. That is a decline in the rate of growth by 6.6 percent versus last year. By any measure still a leading growth engine for the global economy and more than double our expected growth rate here in the US for that period of time. For China however, a growth rate of 7% is a national disgrace and increasingly difficult issue to avoid tackling in an aggressive manner.
Reforms focused on anti-corruption coupled with fiscal and monetary policies aimed at addressing the property slump, fear of deflation and excess industrial capacity are top priorities. Chinese officials also know that in order to build a more self-sustaining and flexible economy, more effort is needed to build domestic demand. Much of China’s post-Mao modern economic development has focused on exports. When the world had an appetite and consumer demand for imports from China, that model worked brilliantly. Now that the global economy is entering another year of stagnant growth, China can no longer afford to be without a domestic demand component for its industrial production.
The global economy and China both need  Premier Li Keqiang’s  policy objectives and goals to succeed. The US and UE are in need of a healthy and growing economic trading partner in China. China in many ways is the key and the fulcrum for the global economy.


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